dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Hayden Birdsong strikeouts (pitcher)

Hayden Birdsong: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · SF · MLB · baseline 3.2/game (2025, 21 games)
3.0
Median
0.6-6.1
80% range
1.5-4.8
50% range
7.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.63.06.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
1.0+83%
2.0+67%
3.0+50%
4.0+35%
5.0+22%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Hayden Birdsong player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts