dfsforge / MLB forecasts / J.P. France strikeouts (pitcher)

J.P. France: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · HOU · MLB · baseline 4.4/game (2024, 5 games)
4.3
Median
1.4-7.4
80% range
2.8-5.8
50% range
8.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.44.37.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
2.0+85%
3.0+72%
4.0+54%
5.0+40%
6.0+23%
7.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: J.P. France player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts