Matthew TkachukFITTED MODEL

W · FLA · NHL

12.3

Projection

3.0

Floor (p10)

24.1

Ceiling (p90)

21%

Boom (1.5x)

34%

Bust (0.6x)

11.4

Avg (last 15)

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	G	A	SOG	SV
2026-04-15	vs DET	10.0	0	2	0	-
2026-04-05	@ PIT	4.5	0	0	3	-
2026-04-04	@ PIT	5.0	0	1	0	-
2026-04-02	vs BOS	3.0	0	0	2	-
2026-03-31	vs OTT	37.0	1	3	5	-
2026-03-29	@ NYR	7.1	0	0	3	-
2026-03-28	@ NYI	23.0	2	0	4	-
2026-03-26	vs MIN	19.5	1	1	4	-
2026-03-24	vs SEA	1.5	0	0	1	-
2026-03-21	@ CGY	4.5	0	0	3	-
2026-03-20	@ EDM	8.0	0	1	2	-
2026-03-18	@ VAN	18.0	1	1	3	-
2026-03-16	@ SEA	4.5	0	0	3	-
2026-03-12	vs CBJ	9.3	0	1	2	-
2026-03-10	vs DET	16.0	0	2	4	-

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts