Erik CernakFITTED MODEL

D · TB · NHL

5.2

Projection

0.8

Floor (p10)

11.4

Ceiling (p90)

25%

Boom (1.5x)

43%

Bust (0.6x)

5.8

Avg (last 15)

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	A	SOG	SV
2025-12-31	@ ANA	0.0	0	0	-
2025-11-23	@ WSH	13.4	1	1	-
2025-11-16	vs VAN	6.5	1	1	-
2025-11-15	@ FLA	2.8	0	1	-
2025-11-13	vs NYR	8.2	0	0	-
2025-11-09	vs WSH	1.5	0	1	-
2025-11-07	@ VGK	8.4	0	1	-
2025-11-05	@ COL	2.6	0	0	-
2025-11-02	@ UTA	11.2	0	2	-
2025-10-30	vs DAL	6.9	0	0	-
2025-10-28	@ NSH	6.5	1	1	-
2025-10-26	vs VGK	4.1	0	1	-
2025-10-25	vs ANA	8.2	0	0	-
2025-10-23	vs CHI	1.5	0	1	-
2025-10-18	@ CBJ	5.0	1	0	-

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts