Durham SmytheFITTED MODEL

TE · BAL · NFL

1.4

Projection

Floor (p10)

Ceiling (p90)

25%

Boom (1.5x)

56%

Bust (0.6x)

1.1

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

receiving yards · receptions · targets

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	Rec Yds	Rec
2025 wk 18	vs DET	0.0	0	0
2025 wk 17	@ SF	2.1	11	1
2025 wk 15	vs CLE	0.0	0	0
2025 wk 14	@ GB	1.2	2	1
2025 wk 12	vs PIT	1.4	4	1
2025 wk 11	@ MIN	1.8	8	1
2025 wk 9	@ CIN	0.0	0	0
2024 wk 18	@ NYJ	0.0	0	0
2024 wk 16	vs SF	1.5	5	1
2024 wk 15	@ HOU	1.8	8	1
2024 wk 14	vs NYJ	0.0	0	0
2024 wk 13	@ GB	1.8	8	1
2024 wk 12	vs NE	1.8	8	1
2024 wk 11	vs LV	1.3	3	1
2024 wk 10	@ LAR	1.6	6	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts