Pat FreiermuthFITTED MODEL

TE · PIT · NFL

8.3

Projection

Floor (p10)

Ceiling (p90)

20%

Boom (1.5x)

35%

Bust (0.6x)

7.6

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

receiving yards · receptions · targets

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	Rec Yds	Rec
2025 wk 18	vs BAL	8.1	51	3
2025 wk 17	@ CLE	9.3	63	3
2025 wk 16	@ DET	6.0	20	4
2025 wk 15	vs MIA	7.5	45	3
2025 wk 14	@ BAL	2.9	9	2
2025 wk 12	@ CHI	10.9	19	3
2025 wk 11	vs CIN	2.9	19	1
2025 wk 10	@ LAC	6.3	33	3
2025 wk 9	vs IND	11.7	27	3
2025 wk 8	vs GB	4.3	13	3
2025 wk 7	@ CIN	28.1	111	5
2025 wk 6	vs CLE	2.1	11	1
2025 wk 3	@ NE	1.6	6	1
2025 wk 2	vs SEA	6.1	31	3
2025 wk 1	@ NYJ	5.8	28	3

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts