Ian ThomasFITTED MODEL

TE · LV · NFL

0.5

Projection

Floor (p10)

Ceiling (p90)

30%

Boom (1.5x)

63%

Bust (0.6x)

2.1

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

receiving yards · receptions · targets

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	Rec Yds	Rec
2025 wk 14	vs DEN	3.7	17	2
2025 wk 13	@ LAC	1.8	8	1
2025 wk 12	vs CLE	7.6	36	4
2025 wk 11	vs DAL	3.0	20	1
2025 wk 9	vs JAX	1.9	9	1
2025 wk 6	vs TEN	1.4	4	1
2025 wk 5	@ IND	5.0	20	3
2025 wk 4	vs CHI	0.0	0	0
2025 wk 2	vs LAC	0.0	0	0
2024 wk 10	vs NYG	1.3	3	1
2024 wk 7	@ WAS	2.4	4	2
2024 wk 6	vs ATL	0.0	0	0
2023 wk 18	vs TB	1.5	5	1
2023 wk 17	@ JAX	0.0	0	0
2023 wk 13	@ TB	1.6	6	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts