Ben SimsFITTED MODEL

TE · MIA · NFL

1.4

Projection

Floor (p10)

Ceiling (p90)

25%

Boom (1.5x)

56%

Bust (0.6x)

2.0

Avg (last 13)

Stat forecasts

receiving yards · receptions · targets

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	Rec Yds	Rec
2025 wk 18	vs GB	2.8	18	1
2025 wk 17	vs DET	1.3	3	1
2025 wk 14	vs WAS	1.9	9	1
2024 wk 14	@ DET	1.2	2	1
2024 wk 8	@ JAX	0.0	0	0
2024 wk 7	vs HOU	1.2	2	1
2024 wk 6	vs ARI	5.8	38	2
2023 wk 17	@ MIN	1.6	6	1
2023 wk 15	vs TB	0.0	0	0
2023 wk 13	vs KC	7.1	1	1
2023 wk 12	@ DET	0.0	0	0
2023 wk 7	@ DEN	1.2	2	1
2023 wk 5	@ LV	2.2	12	1

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts