Davis MillsFITTED MODEL

QB · HOU · NFL

0.5

Projection

Floor (p10)

Ceiling (p90)

42%

Boom (1.5x)

57%

Bust (0.6x)

6.4

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

passing yards · completions · pass attempts · rushing yards · carries

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	Pass Yds	Rush Yds
2025 wk 18	vs IND	2.6	36	12
2025 wk 12	vs BUF	14.5	153	4
2025 wk 11	@ TEN	16.4	274	14
2025 wk 10	vs JAX	27.7	292	20
2025 wk 9	vs DEN	6.2	137	7
2025 wk 5	@ BAL	1.2	23	3
2024 wk 18	@ TEN	6.2	128	11
2024 wk 17	vs BAL	0.2	5	0
2024 wk 6	@ NE	0.0	0	0
2024 wk 3	@ MIN	3.2	79	0
2023 wk 16	vs CLE	16.9	149	9
2023 wk 15	@ TEN	0.0	0	0
2023 wk 14	@ NYJ	0.2	4	0
2023 wk 13	vs DEN	0.7	18	0
2023 wk 11	vs ARI	0.1	2	0

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts