Andrew AlvarezFITTED MODEL

P · WSH · MLB

11.5

Projection

-1.3

Floor (p10)

23.4

Ceiling (p90)

29%

Boom (1.5x)

30%

Bust (0.6x)

11.5

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-07-01	@ BOS	20.1	-	-	-	6
2026-06-26	@ BAL	10.3	-	-	-	5
2026-06-21	@ TB	16.6	-	-	-	6
2026-06-15	vs KC	13.4	-	-	-	5
2026-06-09	@ SF	7.0	-	-	-	4
2026-06-03	vs MIA	15.5	-	-	-	5
2026-05-29	vs SD	-1.4	-	-	-	1
2026-05-24	@ ATL	3.8	-	-	-	1
2026-05-20	vs NYM	13.2	-	-	-	5
2026-05-15	vs BAL	10.3	-	-	-	5
2026-04-19	vs SF	17.4	-	-	-	5
2025-09-24	@ ATL	16.8	-	-	-	5
2025-09-19	@ NYM	2.1	-	-	-	4
2025-09-13	vs PIT	21.1	-	-	-	5
2025-09-07	@ CHC	6.9	-	-	-	2

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts