Seth LugoFITTED MODEL

P · KC · MLB

11.6

Projection

-1.1

Floor (p10)

23.6

Ceiling (p90)

28%

Boom (1.5x)

30%

Bust (0.6x)

10.9

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-07-01	vs TB	15.5	-	-	-	7
2026-06-25	@ TB	-2.1	-	-	-	3
2026-06-19	vs STL	6.7	-	-	-	0
2026-06-10	vs TEX	7.1	-	-	-	2
2026-06-04	@ MIN	5.0	-	-	-	4
2026-05-30	@ TEX	19.3	-	-	-	6
2026-05-24	vs SEA	9.4	-	-	-	3
2026-05-18	vs BOS	15.3	-	-	-	5
2026-05-13	@ CWS	3.2	-	-	-	4
2026-05-07	vs CLE	4.4	-	-	-	5
2026-05-02	@ SEA	15.5	-	-	-	6
2026-04-26	vs LAA	-2.8	-	-	-	3
2026-04-20	vs BAL	26.8	-	-	-	7
2026-04-15	@ DET	24.0	-	-	-	7
2026-04-09	vs CWS	15.4	-	-	-	4

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts