Merrill KellyFITTED MODEL

P · AZ · MLB

7.0

Projection

-0.6

Floor (p10)

15.6

Ceiling (p90)

24%

Boom (1.5x)

31%

Bust (0.6x)

7.0

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-06-28	@ TB	3.5	-	-	-	3
2026-06-22	@ STL	5.5	-	-	-	2
2026-06-16	vs LAA	0.8	-	-	-	4
2026-06-11	@ MIA	7.9	-	-	-	1
2026-06-05	vs WSH	-0.8	-	-	-	4
2026-05-31	@ SEA	5.4	-	-	-	2
2026-05-25	@ SF	16.1	-	-	-	4
2026-05-20	vs SF	10.7	-	-	-	4
2026-05-15	@ COL	24.4	-	-	-	3
2026-05-09	vs NYM	22.1	-	-	-	6
2026-05-03	@ CHC	1.1	-	-	-	5
2026-04-28	@ MIL	-3.4	-	-	-	1
2026-04-21	vs CWS	-4.0	-	-	-	5
2026-04-14	@ BAL	8.6	-	-	-	3
2025-09-21	vs MIA	7.5	-	-	-	4

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts