dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Maria Conde three-pointers

Maria Conde: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

F · TOR · WNBA · baseline 1.7/game (2026, 19 games)
1.3
Median
0.2-3.3
80% range
0.7-2.3
50% range
4.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.21.33.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+71%
2.0+41%
3.0+13%
4.0+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 267 F three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 60.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Maria Conde player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts