dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Amy Okonkwo points

Amy Okonkwo: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · ATL · WNBA · baseline 10.2/game (2025, 10 games)
10.0
Median
2.7-18.1
80% range
5.6-14.1
50% range
20.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.710.018.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+79%
10.0+50%
15.0+21%
20.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 454 F points games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Amy Okonkwo player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts