dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Paige Bueckers three-pointers

Paige Bueckers: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

G · DAL · WNBA · baseline 1.8/game (2026, 20 games)
1.4
Median
0.2-3.4
80% range
0.8-2.7
50% range
4.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.21.43.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+72%
2.0+42%
3.0+22%
4.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 693 G three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 80.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Paige Bueckers player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts