dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Iliana Rupert points

Iliana Rupert: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · GS · WNBA · baseline 8.8/game (2025, 23 games)
8.6
Median
1.9-16.0
80% range
4.8-12.4
50% range
17.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.98.616.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
4.0+79%
6.0+68%
8.0+55%
10.0+38%
12.0+28%
14.0+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 152 C points games, our 80% range covered 81.6% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Iliana Rupert player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts