dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Azura Stevens points

Azura Stevens: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · CHI · WNBA · baseline 10.6/game (2026, 14 games)
10.3
Median
3.1-18.5
80% range
6.0-14.5
50% range
20.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.110.318.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+81%
10.0+52%
15.0+23%
20.0+6%
25.0+1%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 454 F points games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Azura Stevens player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts