dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Jessica Shepard rebounds

Jessica Shepard: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · DAL · WNBA · baseline 11.0/game (2026, 21 games)
10.7
Median
6.6-15.4
80% range
8.5-13.2
50% range
17.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

6.610.715.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
6.0+93%
8.0+80%
10.0+59%
12.0+36%
14.0+19%
16.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 658 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jessica Shepard player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts