dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / DeWanna Bonner three-pointers

DeWanna Bonner: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

Name: DeWanna Bonner three-pointers outcome distribution
Creator: dfsforge

F · PHX · WNBA · baseline 1.0/game (2026, 21 games)

1.1

Median

0.1-2.2

80% range

0.2-1.6

50% range

3.2

Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointers	Probability
1.0+	51%
2.0+	21%
3.0+	6%
4.0+	3%

Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 267 F three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 60.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).

Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.

More: DeWanna Bonner player page · all WNBA forecasts

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts