dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Nneka Ogwumike three-pointers

Nneka Ogwumike: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

F · LA · WNBA · baseline 1.3/game (2026, 18 games)
1.1
Median
0.0-3.1
80% range
0.1-2.1
50% range
4.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.01.13.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+60%
2.0+30%
3.0+11%
4.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 267 F three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 60.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nneka Ogwumike player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts