dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Kayla Thornton points

Kayla Thornton: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · GS · WNBA · baseline 8.3/game (2026, 19 games)
7.5
Median
1.9-16.2
80% range
4.1-11.5
50% range
18.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.97.516.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
2.0+90%
4.0+76%
6.0+63%
8.0+46%
10.0+33%
12.0+23%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 454 F points games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Kayla Thornton player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts