dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Grace Berger rebounds

Grace Berger: reboundsFITTED MODEL

G · DAL · WNBA · baseline 3.0/game (2025, 21 games)
2.9
Median
0.8-5.9
80% range
1.4-4.4
50% range
6.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.82.95.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
1.0+80%
2.0+63%
3.0+49%
4.0+30%
5.0+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 499 G rebounds games, our 80% range covered 77.8% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Grace Berger player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts