dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Kelsey Mitchell points

Kelsey Mitchell: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · IND · WNBA · baseline 21/game (2026, 20 games)
21
Median
12-31
80% range
16-26
50% range
34
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

122131
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
10+94%
15+80%
20+57%
25+30%
30+13%
35+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 709 G points games, our 80% range covered 77.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Kelsey Mitchell player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts