dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Napheesa Collier points

Napheesa Collier: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · MIN · WNBA · baseline 22/game (2025, 41 games)
22
Median
13-32
80% range
17-27
50% range
35
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

132232
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
10+97%
15+84%
20+62%
25+35%
30+16%
35+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 454 F points games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Napheesa Collier player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts