dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Napheesa Collier assists

Napheesa Collier: assistsFITTED MODEL

F · MIN · WNBA · baseline 3.0/game (2025, 41 games)
2.6
Median
0.6-5.4
80% range
1.7-3.9
50% range
6.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.62.65.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
1.0+85%
2.0+71%
3.0+43%
4.0+24%
5.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 219 F assists games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Napheesa Collier player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts