dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Emily Engstler points

Emily Engstler: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · POR · WNBA · baseline 8.8/game (2026, 20 games)
8.0
Median
2.4-16.6
80% range
4.6-12.0
50% range
18.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.48.016.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
2.0+93%
4.0+79%
6.0+66%
8.0+50%
10.0+36%
12.0+25%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 454 F points games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Emily Engstler player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts