dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Ariel Atkins points

Ariel Atkins: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · LA · WNBA · baseline 8.0/game (2026, 17 games)
7.0
Median
1.3-15.8
80% range
3.8-11.6
50% range
18.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.37.015.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+67%
10.0+33%
15.0+12%
20.0+3%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 709 G points games, our 80% range covered 77.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Ariel Atkins player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts