dfsforge / WNBA forecasts / Natasha Cloud points

Natasha Cloud: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · CHI · WNBA · baseline 8.9/game (2026, 18 games)
7.9
Median
2.3-16.7
80% range
4.7-12.5
50% range
19.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.37.916.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5.0+73%
10.0+39%
15.0+15%
20.0+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 709 G points games, our 80% range covered 77.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Natasha Cloud player page · all WNBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts