dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Kel'el Ware points

Kel'el Ware: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · MIA · NBA · baseline 11.7/game (2026, 83 games)
11.1
Median
5.1-18.9
80% range
7.7-15.1
50% range
20.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

5.111.118.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
6.0+86%
8.0+73%
10.0+58%
12.0+44%
14.0+31%
16.0+21%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2610 C points games, our 80% range covered 75.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Kel'el Ware player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts