dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Kai Jones rebounds

Kai Jones: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · DAL · NBA · baseline 3.3/game (2025, 45 games)
3.0
Median
0.7-6.7
80% range
1.5-4.6
50% range
7.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.73.06.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
1.0+84%
2.0+68%
3.0+50%
4.0+34%
5.0+21%
6.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Kai Jones player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts