dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Branden Carlson rebounds

Branden Carlson: reboundsFITTED MODEL

C · OKC · NBA · baseline 3.1/game (2026, 45 games)
2.5
Median
0.0-7.4
80% range
0.8-4.9
50% range
9.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.02.57.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+58%
4.0+33%
6.0+17%
8.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4136 C rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Branden Carlson player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts