dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Alex Sarr rebounds

Alex Sarr: reboundsFITTED MODEL

C · WSH · NBA · baseline 7.4/game (2026, 50 games)
6.9
Median
3.1-12.2
80% range
4.9-9.7
50% range
13.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.16.912.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+97%
4.0+83%
6.0+63%
8.0+40%
10.0+23%
12.0+11%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4136 C rebounds games, our 80% range covered 81.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Alex Sarr player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts