dfsforge / NBA forecasts / DeJon Jarreau rebounds

DeJon Jarreau: reboundsFITTED MODEL

G · MEM · NBA · baseline 4.5/game (2026, 10 games)
4.2
Median
1.4-7.8
80% range
2.7-6.0
50% range
9.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.44.27.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+84%
3.0+71%
4.0+54%
5.0+39%
6.0+25%
7.0+15%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7053 G rebounds games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: DeJon Jarreau player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts