dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Trey Murphy III rebounds

Trey Murphy III: reboundsFITTED MODEL

F · NO · NBA · baseline 5.6/game (2026, 69 games)
5.3
Median
2.0-9.6
80% range
3.6-7.6
50% range
11.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.05.39.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

reboundsProbability
2.0+90%
4.0+69%
6.0+42%
8.0+21%
10.0+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 7752 F rebounds games, our 80% range covered 80.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Trey Murphy III player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts