dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Trey Murphy III points

Trey Murphy III: pointsFITTED MODEL

F · NO · NBA · baseline 21/game (2026, 69 games)
21
Median
12-31
80% range
16-26
50% range
35
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

122131
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
10+93%
15+78%
20+55%
25+31%
30+13%
35+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6380 F points games, our 80% range covered 80.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Trey Murphy III player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts