dfsforge / NBA forecasts / James Harden points

James Harden: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · CLE · NBA · baseline 22/game (2026, 90 games)
22
Median
11-33
80% range
16-28
50% range
37
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

112233
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
10+91%
15+79%
20+59%
25+36%
30+18%
35+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: James Harden player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts