dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Joel Embiid assists

Joel Embiid: assistsFITTED MODEL

C · PHI · NBA · baseline 4.3/game (2026, 46 games)
4.0
Median
0.9-8.1
80% range
2.3-6.0
50% range
9.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.94.08.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
2.0+78%
3.0+65%
4.0+50%
5.0+37%
6.0+25%
7.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1376 C assists games, our 80% range covered 77.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Joel Embiid player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts