dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Andrew Nembhard assists

Andrew Nembhard: assistsFITTED MODEL

G · IND · NBA · baseline 7.5/game (2026, 60 games)
7.3
Median
3.8-11.5
80% range
5.4-9.4
50% range
12.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.87.311.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
2.0+98%
4.0+88%
6.0+68%
8.0+41%
10.0+20%
12.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9094 G assists games, our 80% range covered 80.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Andrew Nembhard player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts