dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Deni Avdija assists

Deni Avdija: assistsFITTED MODEL

F · POR · NBA · baseline 6.4/game (2026, 77 games)
6.3
Median
3.1-9.9
80% range
4.4-8.1
50% range
11.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.16.39.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
2.0+97%
4.0+81%
6.0+54%
8.0+26%
10.0+9%
12.0+3%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 4060 F assists games, our 80% range covered 79.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Deni Avdija player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts