dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Tyrese Haliburton points

Tyrese Haliburton: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · IND · NBA · baseline 18/game (2025, 99 games)
18
Median
8-28
80% range
13-23
50% range
32
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

81828
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5+97%
10+85%
15+64%
20+38%
25+18%
30+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tyrese Haliburton player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts