dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Damian Lillard three-pointers

Damian Lillard: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

G · MIL · NBA · baseline 3.2/game (2025, 66 games)
3.0
Median
0.8-5.7
80% range
1.8-4.4
50% range
6.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.83.05.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+87%
2.0+72%
3.0+50%
4.0+32%
5.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9454 G three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 80.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Damian Lillard player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts