dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Damian Lillard points

Damian Lillard: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · MIL · NBA · baseline 23/game (2025, 66 games)
23
Median
12-35
80% range
17-29
50% range
38
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

122335
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
10+94%
15+82%
20+64%
25+41%
30+21%
35+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Damian Lillard player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts