dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jonas Valanciunas points

Jonas Valanciunas: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · DEN · NBA · baseline 8.3/game (2026, 74 games)
7.5
Median
2.1-15.1
80% range
4.7-11.2
50% range
17.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.17.515.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
2.0+90%
4.0+80%
6.0+64%
8.0+47%
10.0+32%
12.0+21%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2610 C points games, our 80% range covered 75.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jonas Valanciunas player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts