dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · OKC · NBA · baseline 30/game (2026, 86 games)
30
Median
19-41
80% range
24-36
50% range
45
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

193041
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
15+96%
20+87%
25+72%
30+49%
35+28%
40+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts