dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Pete Nance three-pointers

Pete Nance: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

F · MIL · NBA · baseline 1.1/game (2026, 51 games)
0.9
Median
0.0-2.9
80% range
0.0-1.5
50% range
3.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.00.92.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+37%
2.0+20%
3.0+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 6019 F three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 78.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Pete Nance player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts