dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Wendell Carter Jr. points

Wendell Carter Jr.: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · ORL · NBA · baseline 11.8/game (2026, 91 games)
11.2
Median
5.3-19.0
80% range
7.9-15.3
50% range
21.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

5.311.219.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
6.0+87%
8.0+74%
10.0+60%
12.0+45%
14.0+32%
16.0+22%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2610 C points games, our 80% range covered 75.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Wendell Carter Jr. player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts