dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jamal Murray points

Jamal Murray: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · DEN · NBA · baseline 25/game (2026, 86 games)
24
Median
13-36
80% range
19-30
50% range
39
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

132436
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
10+96%
15+86%
20+70%
25+47%
30+26%
35+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jamal Murray player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts