dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Nikola Jokic points

Nikola Jokic: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · DEN · NBA · baseline 27/game (2026, 76 games)
26
Median
16-37
80% range
21-31
50% range
40
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

162637
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
15+93%
20+79%
25+58%
30+30%
35+14%
40+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2610 C points games, our 80% range covered 75.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nikola Jokic player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts