dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Nikola Jokic assists

Nikola Jokic: assistsFITTED MODEL

C · DEN · NBA · baseline 10.2/game (2026, 76 games)
10.0
Median
6.9-14.0
80% range
8.2-12.0
50% range
15.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

6.910.014.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

assistsProbability
4.0+100%
6.0+96%
8.0+77%
10.0+49%
12.0+25%
14.0+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1376 C assists games, our 80% range covered 77.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nikola Jokic player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts