dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Jared Butler points

Jared Butler: pointsFITTED MODEL

G · PHX · NBA · baseline 16/game (2026, 4 games)
15
Median
7-25
80% range
10-20
50% range
28
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

71525
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
5+95%
10+77%
15+49%
20+25%
25+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 8792 G points games, our 80% range covered 79.5% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jared Butler player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts